By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed
Spot month prices posted a 2nd straight weekly gain last week following threats Russia could cut all gas exports to Europe and worries over a possible rail strike that could disrupt coal shipments. Storage levels posted their first draw of the season last week. Prices rose 8% during Wednesday’s session and fell nearly 4% during Friday’s shortened trade.
For the week ended Nov 18, stocks fell 80 BCF leaving total gas in storage at 3.564 TCF. The draw was smaller than expected but larger than both last year’s pull of 14 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 48 BCF. The 5 yr avg deficit widened for the first time in 9 weeks to 39 BCF. Estimates for this week’s report suggest a pull of 105 BCF, more than triple the 5 yr avg pull of 34 BCF.
Compared to weekend updates, the Central US is coming in colder this morning while the South is warmer. A strong cold air mass is expected to move into the Northern US late in the 6-10 day period.
Friday’s 3-4 week outlook from the NOAA is showing below normal temps confined to the northern 1/3 of the country while the Southern 1/3 averages warmer than normal.
Today’s expiring December 22 natural gas contract was up .901 or 14.3% in last week’s trade but is down sharply today to begin the new week of trade.
Last week’s breakout above 200 day moving average resistance failed to hold as the December contract has broken back under this support at 6.925 into today’s session.
The 10 day moving average at 6.530 is the next area of support followed by the 40 day average at 6.210. These two averages remain in a bullish alignment along with the short and long term trend following indexes.
The 200 day moving average is now resistance at 6.925 followed by last week’s 7.604 high.
Relative Strength Index – 51.72
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