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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 11-30-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

The new spot month January contract settled lower Wednesday as mild weather forecasts and strong production outweighed the cold snap and upcoming supply withdrawals. Jan futures settled 3.3 cents lower at $2.804.

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Today’s storage report is expected to show stocks fell by a lower than normal 12 BCF in the week ended Nov24 as mostly mild weather last week limited heating demand.  Today’s number is well below last year’s pull of 80 BCF and lower than the 5 yr avg pull of 44 BCF. If correct, total gas in storage would stand at 3.814 TCF. Estimates for the week ending Dec 1 currently imply a withdrawal of 101 BCF. 

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November is currently on track to yield 534 HDDs which is below both the 10  and 30 yr norms as above normal temps span the West and Central US with below normal readings in the NE.  Maxar took 15 HDDs out of their December forecast yesterday, leaving their projection for the month at 780 HDDs.  This ranks 14th warmest since 1950.  Warm changes are result of an anonymously warm start to December with Maxar projecting Dec1 -13 ranking 4th warmest since 1950. While the 2nd half of the month is expected to remain warmer than normal, there are some cold risks across the North Central US.

 

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Total demand is down nearly 10 BCF/day this morning as temps continue to rise.  Res/comm usage accounts for more than half of the total decline, coming in 5.4 BCF lower on the day while power burn is down 2.2 BCF/day at 33.3 BCF/day.
Prices are trading modestly higher this morning as overnight forecasts saw slightly colder changes in the East during the 11-15 day period.
Technical Analysis
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The new front month January 24 natural gas contract closed slightly lower on Wednesday losing .035 to close the session at 2.804.

The January contract tested and held above 7-month trend line support on the daily continuation chart near the 2.750 level which is a supportive feature heading into today’s trade.

10 day moving average resistance is at 2.865 today.  A breakout above this resistance  will turn 3.000-3.020 into the next area of resistance.

7-month trend line support beginning at the mid-April 1.944 low is near 2.760 today.  A close under this support will turn the 61.8% retracement of the April-October uptrend at 2.590 into the next area of support.  This retracement coincides with 200 day moving average support at 2.610.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 42.30

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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