

Spot month gas prices ended Thursday’s session with a loss following a seasonally bearish storage injection while weather outlooks maintain a warm pattern across the East. The mild fall temps are likely to continue widening the surplus into mid November, helping push storage levels above 4 TCF for the first time in 8 years. The Nov contract settled 5.4 cents lower at $2.693.

Coming in slightly higher than expected, the EIA reported an injection of 69 BCF for the week ended Nov 1, causing the surplus to widen for a 3rd straight week. Total gas in storage stands at 3.932 TCF, 215 BCF, or about 6% , higher than the 5 yr avg and 157 BCF higher than last year. The supply/demand balance this week has tightened substantially, suggesting a much smaller build in next week’s report.
For the week in progress, estimates point to an injection between 35 and 40 BCF. This compares to last year’s build of 41 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 29 BCF.
Gas consumption for the week ending Nov 8 is about 1.9 BCF/day higher week over week. Demand levels yesterday rose to 105.8 BCF/day, up 7.4 BCF/day from Sunday’s level of 98.4 BCF/day. The increase stems from stronger res/comm consumption along with an improvement in feedgas flows. Demand levels this morning are coming in about steady at 105.7 BCF/day.

Uncertainty regarding the storm is pushing prices higher this morning. Rafael is expected to weaken as it churns over the south central GOM into the weekend and early next week.

After beginning the week with a strong rally higher on Monday, the spot December 24 contract has been trending in a narrow, sideways range over the following three sessions closing Thursday at 2.693. For the week, the contract is up .030.
The December contract has been consolidating above 10 and 40 day moving average support on the daily continuation chart at 2.645 (10 day average) and 2.580 (40 day average) but has been unable so far to extend Monday’s gains.
2.818 is weekly high resistance followed by 2.970-3.000 which is three point trend line resistance beginning at the January 2024 high. A breakout and close above 3.000 is needed to turn the longer term trend back up.
If 2.970-3.000 resistance continues to hold, the primary trend will remain sideways to down.
A close under 2.580 will turn the bottom of the open gap created last week during expiration of the November 24 contract at 2.390 into the next area of support.
Longer term support is the 200 day moving average at 2.220.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 54.15






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



