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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-1-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Gas prices settled lower Wednesday as forecasts weren’t cold enough to spark much concern.  While stocks are expected to fall by a larger than normal amount for the week ended November 25, a much smaller pull is expected for the following week.  Jan futures fell 30.5 cents at $6.93.  

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The EIA is expected to report stocks fell 84 BCF in the week ended Nov 25.  This compares to last year’s draw of 54 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 34 BCF.  If correct, stocks would fall to 3.48 TCF.

Early estimates for next week’s report suggest a draw of 26 BCF while the week ended Dec 8 could show a stronger withdrawal of 86 BCF. 

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Feedgas demand rose more than 1.6 BCF/day on Wednesday to 12.78 BCF/day as fog lifted at the Sabine Pass terminal.  Feedgas demand there rose 1.47 BCF to about 5 BCF/day.  

Demand is coming in stronger for a 5th straight day today as temps continue to drop.  Total demand is up 3.1 BCF at 120.1 BCF/day.  Gains are being led by a 2.8 BCF/day increase in res/comm usage, a 0.9 BCF/day rise in industrial usage and a 0.5 BCF/day increase in LNG feedgas demand.

 

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Maxar’s final December outlook trended colder yesterday as below normal temps are favored along the Northern Tier and East.  A total of 35 HDDs were added leaving total HDDs for the month projected at 875.  The first half of the month should feature the coldest temps.  
Prices are currently trading higher. 
Technical Analysis
 
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The January 23 natural gas contract has rebounded back higher this morning following a sell off on Wednesday which dropped the contract lower by .305 (4.2%) to finish the day at 6.930.

Yesterday’s sell off bottomed at a 6.806 low which closed the open gap created on the expiration of the December 22 contract while holding above 10 day moving average support.

With the gap closed and 10 day moving average support holding, the primary trend remains sideways to up.

Weekly high resistance is at 7.421 followed by last week’s 7.604 high.  

The 10 day moving average at 6.860 today remains near term support with longer term 40 day moving average support at 6.240.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Relative Strength Index – 57.12

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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