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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-19-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251219092156-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

The nat gas market failed to hold early gains Thursday despite the EIA reporting a larger than normal withdrawal that cut into the 5 yr avg surplus.  The market remains focused on unsupportive weather forecasts heading into year’s end, which continue to weigh on sentiment. Production levels remain elevated while demand has generally trended lower this week.  Jan futures settled 11.6 cents lower at $3.908.

Forecasts are showing additional warmth across the East this morning versus yesterday.  Record warm lows are likely to be challenged in some regions. Aside from some normal readings along the West Coast and in the very NE, the US will remain warmer than normal during the 11-15 day period.  

image 124229

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Stocks fell 167 BCF in the week ended Dec 12, leaving total supplies at 3.579 TCF.  The draw was in line with market expectations but exceeded both the 5 yr and year ago withdrawals. As a result, the year over deficit widened to 61 BCF while the 5 yr avg surplus narrowed to 32 BCF.  

A very cold start to the week ending Dec 19 is supporting expectations for another sizable withdrawal.  With temps turning more mild across major consuming regions, withdrawals are likely to taper off in the weeks ahead. 

image 124230

Source: StoneX

LNG feedgas demand remains steady at 18.2 BCF/d, just below the month to date average of 18.5 BCF/d.

Heating demand spiked higher this morning, providing some near term support.  Total demand however remains more than 30 BCF/d lower than last weekend’s peak.  Looking ahead, overall demand is expected to decline another 7 to 8 BCF/d over the next 2 weeks.    

image 124231Source: NOAA

The spot month is current trading 2 cents higher.  

image-20251219092324-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Wednesday’s upside reversal by the January 26 natural gas contract failed to hold on Thursday as sellers used early strength to sell the contract back lower. 

After topping at a 4.218 morning high, late-day selling dropped the January contract to a 3.908 close, down .116.

Tuesday’s 3.842 weekly low held as support in the overnight session bottoming at 3.840.

If 3.840 support is broken, the top of the open gap on the daily continuation chart from late-October at 3.786 will become the next area of support.

To close the gap, the spot contract will need to trade down to 3.570 which is 200-day moving average support on the daily continuation chart.

If 3.840 support holds and the trend turns back higher, 4.218 is near term resistance followed by 4.475 which is the 38% retracement of the recent downtrend and former 60-minute chart trend line support, now resistance.

Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 38.74

image 124233

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 124235

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 124234

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 124005

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 124006

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 124232

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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