

Nat gas prices fell by about 5% Monday in response to higher production estimates and forecasts turning notably warmer for the middle of December. Weather driven demand is still expected to remain strong through this week as frigid temps remain in place. Jan futures settled 15 cents lower at $3.213.

Contributing to yesterday's selloff, output levels rose to 103.2 BCF/day, up 0.4 BCF/day. Levels are still lower than a year ago when production averaged about 105 BCF/day. Platts estimates output will average 102.8 BCF/day over the coming 2 weeks.
Frigid conditions will remain in place this week and across the Central and Eastern US, resulting in strong heating demand. Markets appear to be focused on a forecasted change to more moderate conditions later next week. Both Maxar and the NWS have pulled out colder conditions for the 8-14 day period.
Yesterday’s forecast from Maxar shows the 15 day period yielding 393.2 HDDs which is down from Friday’s outlook. The forecast still remains much higher than the 10 yr norm of 354 HDDs and largely colder than last year, which ranked 6th warmest.

Prices are extending Monday's selloff as forecasts show moderating temperatures during the middle of December. Both the NWS and Maxar are now showing much of the county turning warmer Dec 10-16.

The January 25 natural gas contract gapped lower on Monday to begin the new week of trade and was under steady selling pressure into the close. For the day, the contract was down .150 (4.4%) closing at 3.213, just under 10 day moving average support.
The near term trend may be ready to turn back down if the January contract closes under the 10 day moving average for a 2nd day.
If selling continues, former 3.000-3.020 resistance will become the next area of support.
Funds bought 66,424 contracts during the breakout above 3.000-3.020 resistance according to the COT report released on Monday. A drop back under 3.000 could trigger further fund liquidation.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.240 today with longer term resistance at last week’s 3.563 high.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 55.03






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