By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed
Spot month gas prices tumbled 7% Friday following reports of yet another delay in Freeport LNG’s restart. Forecasts for less demand amid mild weather added further pressure. The Jan contract settled 45.7 cents lower at $6.281. This left the Jan contract down 11% for the week following a 19% rise over the prior 2 weeks.
Freeport LNG once again delayed the restart of its export facility on Friday, pushing the resumption to year’s end pending approval. This is about 2 weeks beyond its previous estimate. Analysts say it could take until Jan or Feb for the US safety regulator PHMSA to review and approve any restart request and for Freeport to complete necessary work.
US gas demand remained above 100 BCF last week for a 3rd straight week to an average of 100.47 BCF/day. This was down 10.78 BCF/day from the previous week’s average.
Total demand this morning is down 2.5 BCF/day from Sunday but up 3.2 BCF/day from Friday at 111.8 BCF/day. Demand is expected to trend lower over the next week, averaging 108.2 BCF/day.
The January 23 natural gas contract has been heavily sold over the past 6 sessions following a 2nd failed breakout above 200 day moving average resistance.
From the 8.177 high set on Nov. 23rd, the January contract has lost 1.896 or 23% down to Friday’s 6.281 settle.
The January contract is sharply lower this morning after gapping under 40 day moving average at 6.195 in today’s early trade.
5.840 is the 61.8% retracement support of the October-November uptrend. If this support is broken, the 78% retracement at 5.380 and the final 88% retracement at 5.090 will become the next downside support areas.
The 6.052 overnight high is near term resistance followed by the 40 day average at 5.195.
The funds added 16,069 contracts to their net position and are now short 53,889 contracts as of the 11/29 close.
Relative Strength Index – 42.78
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