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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-7-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Natural gas prices crumbled yesterday with not only the spot month but the entire forward curve collapsing.  Several factors were at play including ongoing bearish weather outlooks, declining demand levels, a drop in crude prices and rumors of a delay in LNG projects.  Jan futures settled 14.1 cents lower at $2.569. The premium of Mar24 over Apr24 fell to a record low of a penny, suggesting the market is basically giving up on winter.  

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A tighter market balance due to much colder weather during the last week of November is expected to result in the first major drawdown this season.  The supply/demand balance tightened just under 14 BCF/day last week. 

Today’s storage report is expected to show a larger than normal withdrawal of 106 BCF for the week ended Dec 1.  This compares to last year’s draw of 30 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 48 BCF.  If correct, stocks would fall to 3.73 TCF.  Early estimates for next week’s report suggest a withdrawal of 65 BCF.

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Maxar’s outlook thru Dec25 shows widespread above normal temps across a majority of the US with the warmest anomalies from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. A total of 576 HDDs are expected which would rank 5th warmest since 1950.

Jan and Feb HHD projections were both unchanged in yesterday’s Maxar outlook.  January is projected to yield 910 HDDs which is lower than normal but higher than Jan23’s 777.4 while Feb is projected to yield 770 HDDs while is also lower than normal but higher than Feb23’s 682.8.  

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Prices are currently trading mixed with Jan and Feb higher with the balance of the curve trading a touch lower. 
According to Platts, total demand is down nearly 6 BCF this morning while output is unchanged at 102.3 BCF/day.
Technical Analysis
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The natural gas market is on course for a 5th consecutive lower weekly close following a heavy sell off in Wednesday’s session.

The spot January 24 contract lost .141 (5.2%) on Wednesday to settle at 2.569, closing under the 61.8% retracement of the April-October uptrend and the 200 day moving average.

Volume came in at a 6-week high of 218,374 contracts.

The next longer term support is the 78% retracement of the April-October uptrend at 2.315. 

Former 61.8% retracement support and the 200 day moving average broken as support on Wednesday are now resistance at 2.590 (61.8% retracement) extending up to 2.620 (200 day moving average).

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 32.09

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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