

Spot month nat gas ended Friday’s session lower after trading both sides with healthy production levels outweighing strong LNG feedgas demand and forecasts for colder conditions. March futures settled 9.9 cents lower at $3.309. Prices however gained nearly 27 cents week over week as several rounds of cold are expected into mid to late February.

Production levels are heading towards record highs of 107 BCF/day. Output Friday was estimated by Platts at 105.4 BCF/day, higher than the month to date average of 105.3 BCF/day. Production levels are projected to average 105.5 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.
LNG feedgas demand is also running near record highs just above 15 BCF/day as strong demand from Europe continues to boost export activity. Feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 15.4 BCF/day.
Prices are trading higher this morning as widespread cold has arrived in the North and Central US with readings expected to average much to strongly below normal over the next 5 days. Heating demand has increased as a result of the colder conditions, rising from Friday’s 42.5 BCF/day to 49 BCF/day as of this morning. Res/comm usage will continue higher over the next week, averaging 50.7 BCF/day.

Forecasts are trending much colder this morning than Friday’s outlook with strong cold expected to spread into the Central US next week. Cold will peak during the middle of the 6-10 day period with lows falling to below zero. Temps in the East will vary before colder readings emerge mid period, although conditions won’t be as cold as the Central US. Above normal readings in the South and TX will give way to colder temps mid period.
Technical Analysis

The March 25 natural gas contract gapped above 10 day moving average resistance in today’s early trade keeping prices in a near term uptrend.
The March contract gained .265 (8%) in last week’s trade settling Friday at 3.309, just under 10 day moving average resistance.
The March contract opened today ‘s session at 3.409, nearly .100 above Friday’s close.
3.515, the 38% retracement of the January-February downtrend, is the next area of resistance. Longer term resistance is the 40 day moving average currently at 3.615.
Once the current rally ends, renewed weakness is expected into the late-February/March timeframe during which a post-winter seasonal low is typically set.
The 10 day moving average at 3.320 is now near term support followed by 2.990-3.000 which is weekly low support and the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend.
If 2.990-3.000 support is reached and broken, the 61.8% retracement at 2.660 will become the next area of support.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -47.40






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



