

A larger than anticipated storage withdrawal sent prices higher Thursday, reversing the early session selloff. Spot month prices shot up about 15 cents immediately following the report with those gains tempering into the close. Apr NG ultimately settled with a 2.7 cent gain at $4.111.

Storage levels fell by a larger than expected and larger than normal 62 BCF in the week ended March 7, leaving total gas in storage at 1.698 TCF. The draw exceeded expectations by 8 BCF and marked the largest decline for week since March 2022. The year over year deficit widened to 628 BCF while the 5 yr avg deficit grew to 230 BCF.
This week’s supply/demand balance has loosened more than 10 BCF/day from last week. This should lead to a successively smaller withdrawal or potentially even an injection in next week’s report.
If the rate of injections matches the 5 yr avg over the remainder of heating season, stocks would total 1.636 TCF on Mar 31, about 230 BCF lower than the 5 yr avg of 1.86 TCF.
Warmth will be the theme across the eastern US over the next 15 days. A total of 214 HDDs are forecast which ranks as the 3rd fewest since 1950. Over the past 2 weeks, HDD projections have fallen by more than 60.
Very light national demand is projected through the weekend as warmer than normal temps encompass much of the interior US. Highs are expected to reach near 70 in Chicago and could top 90 degrees in Texas.

Prices are trading lower this morning as warmer conditions over the next 2 weeks should result in improving deficits and a possible early start to injection season.
Technical Analysis

The April 25 natural gas contract was able to close slightly higher on Thursday following the previous day’s heavy sell off gaining .027 to close the day at 4.111.
Volume was moderate at 227,071 contracts.
Second day settle under the daily continuation chart 10 day moving average is a bearish signal heading into today’s session although sellers may remain cautious ahead of the weekend.
Weekly low support is at 3.955 followed by the 40 day moving average at 3.865. A close under the 40 day average will turn the trend back down.
10 day moving average resistance is at 4.280 today with longer term resistance at Monday’s 4.091 high.
If prices remains weak into today’s close, a bearish dark cloud cover Japanese candlestick will have formed on the weekly bar.
Bearish divergences (new price high, lower index high) have formed on the daily RSI and the short term trend following indexes suggesting a winter top may finally be in place.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -49.77






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




