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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-25-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Nat gas prices rose 3% Thursday to 7 week highs as forecasts turned colder.  April futures rose 16.9 cents to settle at $5.401.Weather forecasts are showing a winterlike chill this weekend into early next week from the Midwest to the East.  Temps will average about 10 degrees below normal. 

The first week of April is also expected to average colder than normal across much of the US, according to the latest NWS 8-14 day outlook.  

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Storage levels fell by 51 BCF last week, leaving total gas in storage at 1.389 TCF as of Mar 18.  Levels are now 366 BCF below last year and 293 BCF below the 5 yr avg. The draw was weaker than expected as the Pacific region reported a 2nd straight net injection.

Platts is forecasting a 50 BCF injection for the week ending Mar 25.  This would be in contrast to the 5 yr avg draw of 23 BCF.

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Nat gas is rising this morning by nearly 3%.  The US will supply 15 billion cubic meters of LNG to the EU this year to help cut its dependency on Russian gas by 2/3.  Any additional US gas sent to Europe would likely come from exports that would have gone elsewhere.

LNG feedgas remains above 13 BCF for a 3rd straight day, coming in at 13.4 BCF/day.  Platts projects it will remain at this level for the next 2 weeks.

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Technical Analysis
 
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The April 22 natural gas contract is up 3% in today’s early trade after breaking out above 5.250 trend line resistance on Thursday.

After closing Thursday’s session at 5.401, up .169 (3.2%), the April contract has reached 5.570 weekly high resistance in today’s early trade.

5.650-5.660 is the next area of resistance followed by 5.880.  Longer term resistance is the 6.466 October high.

Former trend line resistance at 5.250 now becomes primary support.

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 70.21

 options table & Strip Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
 
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  • Energy

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