

Today’s expiring April contract settled a touch higher Wednesday following a low volume session dominated by position squaring and bargain buying. Apr NG settled 2.1 cents higher at $3.861.

A second consecutive build is expected this morning, confirming an early start to injection season. Today’s report is expected to show a build of 25 BCF for the week ended Mar 21. The estimate is in contrast to last year’s drawdown of 30 BCF and the 5 yr avg drawdown of 31 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 1.732 TCF.
Early estimates for next week’s report covering the week in progress suggest another build of 15 BCF. Once again, this compares to a withdrawal of 37 BCF for the same week last year and a 5 yr avg decline of 13 BCF.
Freeport LNG has resumed normal operations following a weather related outage earlier this week. Flows yesterday hit 2.1 BCF/day, helping push overall feedgas demand to 16.2 BCF/day. LNG flows for today are estimated at 16.1 BCF/day.
Moderate readings heading into April with heat abating in the South will cause weather related demand to dry up. Res/comm usage is down 3.4 BCF/day this morning at 24.3 BCF/day while power burn is coming in 1.8 BCF lower on the day at 28.2 BCF/day. This has pushed total demand down 6.1 BCF/day to 106.4 BCF/day.

Output is being scaled back in the Permian as falling shoulder season demand and pipeline maintenance have caused prices to steadily decline into negative values at West Texas hubs.
Prices have traded mixed this morning ahead of storage data and futures expiration.
Technical Analysis

Today’s expiring April 25 natural gas contract gained .021 on Wednesday settling at 3.861 but is down again in today’s early trade.
A 2nd day settle on Wednesday under the daily continuation chart 40 day moving average turns the primary trend back down into typical post-winter seasonal weakness.
The 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.385 is the next longer term support for the spot contract which will be May 25 in tomorrow’s trade.
The 50% retracement support at 3.015 coincides with the 200 day moving average currently at 2.990 and will be an important support area, if reached.
40 day moving average resistance is at 3.890 today followed closely by the 10 day moving average at 3.980. 10 and 40 day moving average alignment is nearing a bearish crossover.
The short term and long term trend following indexes are now in a bearish alignment. These two indexes along with the daily RSI index are all showing bearish divergences (new price high, lower index high). While not outright sell signals, divergences typically occur near market highs.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 43.28






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



