By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
Last week’s storage withdrawal came in below expectations but still helped narrow the massive surplus. Stocks fell by 47 BCF in the week ended Mar 24, leaving total gas in storage at 1.853 TCF. The draw was nearly triple the 5 yr avg pull of 17 BCF and compared to last year’s injection of 15 BCF. Stocks are now 321 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 442 BCF above last year.
The new front month May 23 natural gas contract lost .080 in Thursday’s session as it traded down to a life of contract low at 2.080 before closing the session at 2.104.
The 1.944 low set by the expired April 23 contract remains primary support. If broken, weekly lows at 1.795 and 1.440, the 25-year low set in June 2020, will become the next areas of support.
A bullish divergence may be forming on the daily chart with prices setting a new low but the indexes setting “higher lows”. This could be the beginning of a bottom finally forming in the market.
10 day moving average resistance is at 2.145 today followed by the 40 day average at 2.415.
Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 40.76
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