By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
Last week’s withdrawal for the week ended Mar 31 came in at 23 BCF, leaving stocks at 1.83 TCF. Injections have already begun in the South Central region where stocks rose 4 BCF during the last week of March. A nearly 20% surplus heading into injection season continues to hang over the market.
This week’s storage report for the week ended April 7 is expected to show a net injection of 36 BCF which compares to last year’s build of 8 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 28 BCF.
The spot May 23 natural gas contract briefly fell under the 2.000 level on Thursday reaching a 1.992 daily low before closing the session at 2.011. For the holiday-shortened week, the contract was down .205 or 9.2%.
Last week was the 3rd time since late-February the 2.000 level has been broken but all three times the market has subsequently recovered closing back over this support.
1.944 remains primary support. If broken, weekly lows at 1.795 and 1.440 will become the next downside objectives.
10 day moving average resistance is at 2.080 today followed by the 40 day average at 2.360.
The short and long term trend following indexes are in a bullish alignment with bullish divergences on the short term index and daily RSI.
Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 41.86
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