

Nat gas prices traded lower Thursday in yet another volatile session given ongoing geopolitical tensions. Early losses accelerated yesterday after the storage report revealed a larger than expected and larger than normal injection. Demand destruction from tariffs is also becoming an increasing concern for the market. The May contract settled 7%, or 25.9 cents lower, at 3.557 while the balance of the 2025 strip posted losses of about 26 cents.

Output levels are have turned higher after dipping to 104.2 BCF/day on Wednesday. Production is back up to 105.6 BCF/day as of this morning. Month to date, output is averaging 105.3 BCF/day, 3.8 BCF/day higher than last year.
For the week ended Apr 4, stocks rose 57 BCF leaving total supplies in storage at 1.83 TCF. The build further eroded the 5 yr avg deficit to 40 BCF while the year over year deficit stands at 450 BCF.
The supply/demand balance loosened last week by about 2 BCF/day, with stronger output and a decline in demand leading to a larger build than the week prior. The market has tightened up this week given the rise in res/comm usage and higher LNG feedgas flows. Platts is currently projecting a much smaller build of 8 BCF for the week in progress. This is supportive when compared to the 5 yr avg build of 50 BCF and last year’s build of 46 BCF.

Concern is rising that tariffs could pose a risk to natural gas demand as countries attempt to reduce dependence on US gas. Additionally, a peace deal in the Russian/Ukraine war would likely increase flows of nat gas from Russia to Europe.
Prices are currently trading mixed.
Technical Analysis

Wednesday’s bullish reversal on the highest volume reading of the year by the May 25 natural gas contract failed to hold.
Instead, sellers used Wednesday’s strength to sell the market back down in Thursday’s trade nearly erasing all the previous day’s gains as the May contract closed the day at 3.557, down .259 (6.8%).
A bearish inside range day posted on Thursday has been followed by continued selling today as the May contract nears 3.336 weekly low support.
If 3.336 support is broken, the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.015 will become the next area of support.
This will be an important support area, if reached, as it coincides with the daily continuation 200 day moving average at 3.040. 3.000 was also previous “breakout” resistance” broken in late-2024, now support.
Trend following indexes remain bearish along with the 10 and 40 day moving average alignment. Daily RSI is currently at 38.85, well above the area under 30 considered “oversold”, suggesting plenty of downside potential from current price levels.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 38.85






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