

Spot month gas prices fell to a 9 week low Monday, extending the decline for a 3rd consecutive session. Pressure stemmed from output rising back toward 106 BCF/day while weekend forecasts turned warmer for the latter half of April, suggesting lower demand levels ahead. May futures settled 20.2 cents lower at $3.325.

Feedgas demand is lower this morning at 15.7 BCF/day versus Monday’s 16.3 BCF/day. Feedgas volumes could see some near term weakness as scheduled pipeline maintenance continues in the Permian.
Negotiations are said to be underway regarding Japan, South Korea and Taiwan purchasing more US LNG which would lead to reduced tariffs. South Korea may purchase 7 mmt/yr, replacing its term contracts with Qatar that expired in 2024.
Forecast changes over the weekend included a loss of 14.1 HDDs during the Apr 14-28 timeframe. The changes were most significant across the Midwest and East with above to much above normal temps now expected on days 5 and 6. Smaller changes were noted during the balance of the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. The 15 day forecast as of yesterday ranked 9th warmest for the period with a total of 123.2 HDDs expected.

Prices are trading lower this morning for a 4th straight session. Production levels were revised higher yesterday from early morning estimates. Platts shows output at 106 BCF/day with this morning’s estimate coming in at 105.5 BCF/day.
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract was up nearly .100 on Monday from Friday’s close reaching a 3.613 morning high.
Sellers used the early strength to hammer the market lower into the close with the May contract finishing the day at 3.325, down .202 (5.7%).
3.336 weekly low support set last week was broken on Monday turning the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.025 into the next area of support.
The lower-3.000 area is the 50% retracement, the daily continuation chart 200-day moving average, and former “breakout” resistance.
If lower-3.000 support is reached and holds, a post-winter low should be in place.
However, if lower-3.000 support fails to hold, the next retracement of 61.8% doesn’t come into play until the 2.655 level.
Former support at 3.336 is now near term resistance followed by Monday’s 3.613 high.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 35.20






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