By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
Prices have traded mixed this morning with strong LNG exports and forecasts for temps to fall further this weekend providing support while bearish storage expectations are adding pressure. Cooler temps on the horizon are expected to prompt a turnaround in heating demand across the Midwest which has been trailing the 5 yr avg for most of April. Regional demand is likely to remain elevated as forecasts call for cooler conditions to persist across the Midwest thru early May.
LNG feedgas fell to 13.6 BCF/day yesterday but is back up this morning at 14.2 BCF/day. We are also seeing a drop in output this morning to below 100 BCF/day at 99.5 BCF.
The May 23 natural gas contract lost .144 (6.1%) on Wednesday settling at 2.222 ending a three day rally uptrend.
Prices have rebounded today after finding good buying interest at 10 day moving average support.
The 40 day moving average at 2.340 basis the May contract is primary resistance today.
A firm breakout above the 40 day average should indicate a post-winter low is in place.
10 day moving average support is at 2.170 today (2.172 current overnight low) with longer term weekly low support at 1.944.
Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 49.82
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