

Today’s expiring May contract traded sideways on Friday, ending the session up 7 ticks at $2.937. Position squaring ahead of today’s expiration led to price fluctuations throughout the day. For the week, prices fell nearly 10%, marking their 4th straight weekly decline.

Weather models suggest light weather demand over the next 15 days. The NWS is calling for cooler than normal readings across the West, SW and NE over the coming 6-10 days. Temps in the NE should warm back up during the 8-14 day period while below normal conditions scale back across the West. Above normal readings will dominate the entire country during the 3-4 week period. This could result in strong, early season cooling demand.
Production dipped over the weekend, falling to 105.6 BCF/day on Saturday but is back up to 106.2 BCF/day as this morning. Month to date, output is averaging 105.7 BCF/day which is up 4.7 BCF/day from last year. The nat gas drilling rig count rose 1 rig last week to a total of 99 rigs.
Reduced volume at Corpus Christi on Friday pushed LNG feedgas demand down to 15.7 BCF/daey. LNG feedgas is estimated this morning at 16.1 BCF/day.

Prices have turned significantly higher this morning, breaking through the 200 day moving average at 3.08. This is likely a relief rally after being in oversold territory.
Technical Analysis

Today’s expiring May contract was marginally higher, up .007 cents at $2.937. The market was down .3150 cents (9.7%) this week. This was also the 4th consecutive week with a lower close from the previous week.
It was also the 5th close below the 200-day moving average at $3.080, a bearish signal. At the same time we are seeing some slowdown in the break as prices trade under the key $3.000 psychological level.
The June contract has a .10 cent premium to May, currently trading at $3.100. If prices stay close to current levels the next two days, near-term futures will be back above the 200-day moving average.
Near term support is at $2.655, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend. Daily RSI is now under the 30 level which is considered technically “oversold”. While not an outright buy signal, it is a warning the trend is becoming stretched. That said, oversold conditions can sometimes persist longer than expected. Resistance above $3.080 is the 10-day moving average at $3.150.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 28.30






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