StoneX logo

Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-6-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260406073749-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices edged lower ahead of the long weekend with May futures settling Thursday’s session down 1.9 cents at $2.80. 

Aside from the spot month which is currently near flat, prices are higher this morning as production slips 0.4 BCF/d to 107.9 BCF/d. Demand is also firming, with LNG feedgas rebounding toward record levels of 19.4 BCF/d and res/comm usage rising on cooler temps.  

 

image 129385

Source: StoneX

The 2025–26 withdrawal season saw a total 2.04 TCF draw, the sixth lightest since 2010, leaving inventories on track to exit injection season in the 3.7–3.9 TCF range.  Injection season is now underway, with weather forecasts pointing to strong injections in the weeks ahead.

Slightly outpacing expectations, storage levels rose 36 BCF in the week ended Mar 27 to 1.865 TCF.  The 5 yr avg surplus rose to 54 BCF while the year over year surplus expanded to 96 BCF.  

An even larger build is expected for the week ended Apr 3 as the supply/demand balance continued to loosen last week.  Total demand fell 2.1 BCF/d week over week while production posted modest gains. Estimates currently call for a build of 45 BCF which would be 3 times more than the 5 yr avg but would fall short of last year’s 53 BCF injection.    

image 129383Source: StoneX

Weather is providing some early week support as the East Coast and Northern US contend with a round of below normal readings. The West, Rockies and portions of the US will average warmer than normal.   Cooler conditions across the East will be replaced with much to strong above normal temps next week while heat in the West moderates slightly.  Widespread above normal temps are projected for the 8-14 day period. 

Heating demand is up nearly 3 BCF/d this morning at 23.5 BCF/d.  This is up from Friday’s level of 15.8 BCF/d.  While demand will rise further in the coming days, the 7 day average is pegged at 19.6 BCF/d while res/comm usage during the 8-14 day period will average 15.7 BCF/d.

image 129384
Source: StoneX

image-20260406073809-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The May 26 natural gas contract has been grinding lower since it took over as the spot contract in last week’s trade.

In last weeks trade, the contract closed lower 4 out of 5 days losing .225 (7.4%) to settle Friday at 2.800.

The trend remains sideways to down with the May contract dropping to a new 2026 spot contract low at 2.769 in today’s early trade.

If 2.769 support is broken, the May contract low at 2.689 set in mid-January will become the next area of support followed by the 2025 spot contract low at 2.622.
 

Daily continuation chart 10-day moving average resistance is at 2.910 today followed by the 40-day average at 3.030.  A close above the 40-day average will turn the near-term and possibly long-term trend back higher.

Moving Average Alignment - Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish 

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 41.08

image 129353

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129354

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129355

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129059

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 129058

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 129356

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

  • Energy

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


1. PRECIPICE DISCLAIMER: This communication includes data and analytics supplied by Precipice Analytics. StoneX does not own, control, create, or author this data and has not independently verified its accuracy. StoneX does not endorse its use for anything other than informational purposes. You are advised that Precipice Analytics technology may be protected by intellectual property and other rights that prohibit the unauthorized use and dissemination of the information contained herein.

2. MARKET INDICATOR DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

3. VALUE MATRIX DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 22

July 22 – Threats to maritime transit is the theme of the day, with escalations being seen in the Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, and now Red Sea, as four more tankers laden with Saudi crude oil have reportedly turned around today due to Iranian-backed Houthi threats toward shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. As of the time of writing, there have been no confirmed physical attacks in Red Sea since these most recent threats began, but those threats alone appear to be causing enough concern for some shippers to avoid the risk. This appears to be an attempt by Iran to gain additional leverage ahead of the next round of peace talks, but such talks appear somewhat elusive at present, with both sides continuing to escalate strikes against one another. This is driving crude oil prices to a six-week high, with nearby WTI up 3% on the day to trade above $87.10 and nearby Brent up 3.4% on the day to trade above $94 at the time of writing.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

China's Refineries Rely on Gulf Barrels They Cannot Easily Replace

China's refineries are built around Middle East and Russian crude, leaving the country unusually exposed when Gulf supply tightens. That structural reliance, not a lack of options, is why a regional conflict reaches so directly into China's import decisions.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 21

July 21 – The tech sector led stock futures higher overnight as investors anticipate major tech company earnings reports in the days ahead, while seemingly feeling immune to two wars half a world away that continue to escalate. It’s day #1,609 of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and day #144 of the war with Iran, with neither showing signs of culminating any time soon. These wars are in some of the world’s most critical locations for commodities essential for the global economy, and yet there remains little panic in the U.S. markets at this point. The VIX is trading below 18, while the dollar index trades near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.61% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.23%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mostly in negative territory overnight after weekly crop ratings largely came in above trade expectations on Monday afternoon.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.