

Spot month nat gas traded rangebound Tuesday with the June contract ending the session basically unchanged. Record setting heat in Texas and across parts of the SW drove cooling demand higher while mild conditions elsewhere reduced res/comm usage. Production levels remained rangebound while LNG feedgas demand was lower on the day. June futures settled 0.1 cent higher at $3.647.

A 3rd straight triple digit build is expected in tomorrow’s storage report which would once again widen the 5 yr avg surplus while narrowing the year over year deficit. Platts is projecting a build of 110 BCF while Refinitiv is calling for a build of 107 BCF. In either case, the number would exceed last year’s build of 73 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 83 BCF.
Forecasts for mostly mild weather thru the end of May should add further length to the surplus. Early estimates for the week in progress range from a build of 110 BCF to as high as 130 BCF.
Power burn is trending higher this week, driven partly by stronger cooling needs while mild weather patterns across the eastern US have trimmed res/comm usage. Power sector load is forecast to retreat over the next 2 weeks as heat recedes in Texas while res/comm usage ticks higher given outlooks for cooler than normal readings.
Total demand this morning is estimated at 96.3 BCF/day, up 1.9 BCF/day. The increase stems from a 2.1 BCF/day surge in power burn.

Prices are falling this morning as forecasts for strong injections ahead outweigh stagnant production and brief near term heat in Texas and the SW. Forecasts for the second half of May continue to lack any sustained heat which should help keep the sideways price trend intact.
Technical Analysis

The June 25 natural gas contract closed flat on Tuesday settling at 3.647 while holding above daily continuation chart 10 and 40 day moving average support.
The market remains in a wide 7-month sideways trend alternating between 2.800-3.000 support and 4.500-4.900 resistance.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged at 3.595-3.600 today.
A close under 3.595 will turn the near term trend back down with 3.410-3.420 being the next area of support.
Longer term support levels are the 200 day moving average at 3.165 followed by the 2.859 April low. A close under the April low is needed to turn the longer term trend back down.
Monday’s 3.840 high extending up to the 50% retracement of the March-April downtrend at 3.880 is near term resistance. Long term resistance is at 4.000 and the 61.8% retracement at 4.165.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 51.43






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