

Limited weather demand through the end of the month and a jump in output kept bearish sentiment in place yesterday. Mild conditions, along with stronger output, are expected to continue driving triple digit builds in the coming weeks. Yesterday’s action extended last week’s slide into a 4th straight session. June futures settled 22.1 cents lower at $3.113.

Weather outlooks turned cooler over the weekend, particularly across the North and Midwest, where below normal temps are expected to dominate through the end of May. Yesterday’s forecast from Weather Desk estimated a total of 68.1 CDDs for the next 15 days, which is lower than the 10 and 30 year norms and cooler than the same time last year which totaled 93.1 CDDs. Hotter temps will begin to spread across the Northern Tier into the NE during the first week of June.
LNG exports improved over the weekend as flows rebounded at both Corpus Christi and Freeport LNG while levels at Plaquemines remain strong. Feedgas demand yesterday was pegged at 15.4 BCF/day with that level holding as of this morning. Planned maintenance next month at Sabine Pass is expected to leave LNG feedgas demand about 2 BCF/day lower than 5 yr norms.

The spot month contract has reversed nearly all of yesterday's losses with June futures up about 19 cents. Position squaring along with a drop in output and an uptick in res/comm demand are contributing to the increase.
Technical Analysis

The June 25 natural gas contract gapped lower on Monday to begin the new week of trade and remained heavily sold into the close.
By session’s close, the contract had lost .221 (6.6%) close the day at 3.113.
Daily continuation chart 200 day moving average support was broken on Monday at 3.190 turning the 2.859 April low into the next area of support.
If 2.859 support is reached and broken, the 61.8% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 2.655 will become the next area of support.
The top of the open gap created on Monday between 3.270-3.305 is near term resistance.
Longer term resistance areas are the 10 and 40 day moving averages broken as support last week. 10 day moving average resistance is at 3.480 followed by the 40 day average at 3.520. 10 and 40 day moving average alignment is now bearish.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 42.01






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