

Natural gas prices saw a huge reversal yesterday following a 4 day selloff that left the market in oversold territory. Technical buying occurred after the spot month fell below the 200 day moving average on Monday. Strength in the cash market along with short covering and stronger exports to Mexico also helped support the move higher. June futures settled with a gain of 31.4 cents at $3.427.

The EIA is expected to report a 4th consecutive above average, triple digit build tomorrow. The range of estimates is wide with Platts calling for a build of 120 BCF while Reuters is currently projecting a build of 106 BCF. The number will compare to the 5 yr avg build of 87 BCF and the year ago injection of 78 BCF. The supply/demand balance widened last week by about 2.6 BCF/day compared to the week prior.
Total demand has strengthened since last week, rising from Friday’s 95.6 BCF/day to 100.9 BCF/day as of this morning. Much of the increase stems from a boost in heating demand given much colder than normal temps across the Midwest and East. Res/comm usage should taper off come early June with temps expected to turn slightly above normal.

US gas exports to Mexico have been trending higher, running above last year’s levels throughout May. Exports hit 7.6 BCF/day yesterday and are even stronger this morning at 7.7 BCF/day. Early season strength stems from a decline in Mexico’s production with output during Q1 2025 down 9% year over year to 3.5 BCF/day.
Prices are down slightly this morning as the market takes into account expectations for another larger than normal build in tomorrow's storage report. The upcoming holiday is also likely to weigh on demand levels.
Technical Analysis

A bullish reversal on Tuesday by the June 25 natural gas contract after closing lower 5 out of the previous 6 sessions.
The June contract was heavily bid from the open on Tuesday gaining .314 (10.1%) to close the day at 3.427.
Volume was at a 6-week high of 230,771 contracts.
The rally has stalled under 10 and 40 day moving average resistance at the 3.485-3.515 area with a current overnight high of 3.513.
A breakout above 10 and 40 day moving average resistance will turn the 3.840 high set last week into the next upside resistance.
Trend following indicators are now bullish but the primary trend is expected to remains in a sideways range similar to the past 6-months.
Weekly low support is at 3.113 with longer term support at the 2.859 April low.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 48.21






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