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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 5-28-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260528084941-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices rallied sharply Wednesday with the June contract rolling off the board at $3.04, up 14.6 cents.  The July contract ended with an 8.5 cent gain, settling at $3.095. Trade was volatile into expiration with the market balancing healthy supplies against strengthening demand and tighter production. 

Above normal temps are expected across the West heading into June, while intermittent stretches of near normal conditions may temper cooling demand across the East in the near term. Weather trends turn more supportive into the second week of June, with forecasts calling for expanding above average heat across much of the US.

Source: NOAA

Power burn proved supportive yesterday, reaching 38.5 BCF/d as temps turned more summerlike across the Midwest and Northern Plains.  Cooling demand is expected to moderate over the coming week, averaging  33.1 BCF/d.   

LNG feedgas demand has rebounded from last week’s lows as maintenance winds down.  Flows rose to 17.6 BCF/d over the weekend and have been stable this week, estimated at 17.5 BCF/d today.  

image 131996Source: StoneX

Today’s storage report is expected to show stocks rose 95 BCF in the week ended May 22. The estimate compares to last year’s build of 104 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 97 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 2.486 TCF.

Early estimates for the week in progress call for a build of 100 BCF which is in line with the 5 yr avg build of 101 BCF but lower than last year’s build of 119 BCF. 

image 131886
Source: StoneX

image-20260528085004-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

A bullish recovery in the natural gas market on Wednesday as the now expired June contract rallied back over 10-day moving average resistance to close the day at 3.040.

Daily settle back over 10-day moving average resistance on Wednesday turns the trend sideways to higher.

The next resistance for the new front month July contract which closed Wednesday at 3.095 is last week’s 3.138 high followed by 3.200-3.210.  

Daily continuation chart 10-day moving average support is at 3.000 today and is primary support.  Weekly low support is at 2.857.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish

Moving Average Alignment - Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Index - 61.46

image 131863

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 131995

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 131994

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 131134

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 131133

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 131993

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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