

Early strength yesterday faded following the storage report, with the spot month dropping about 5 cents before trading mostly sideways the rest of the session. Morning gains stemmed from lower output amid reductions at Cameron LNG, Corpus Christi and Freeport LNG. Production so far this month is averaging 15 BCF/day. June futures settled 2.9 cents lower at $3.592.

Feedgas demand has been on the rise since falling to 12.6 BCF/day on Tuesday. Feedgas flows are estimated this morning at 15.7 BCF/day.
Cheniere Energy expects to have 4 of 7 liquefaction trains online at its Corpus Christi stage 3 project by the end 2025. Cheniere is in talks over adding 2 additional trains to the stage 3 expansion with a final decision expected in the coming months.
Slightly outpacing expectations, the EIA reported a 104 BCF injection for the week ended May 2, leaving total stocks at 2.145 TCF. The build was also well above historical comparisons, pushing the 5 yr avg surplus up to 30 BCF while narrowing the year over year deficit to 412 BCF.
The supply/demand balance continued to loosen this week with total demand down about 1.6 BCF/day with lower output and a drop in Canadian imports helping offset that decline. Overall, the market lengthened about 900 MMcf/day, suggesting another triple digit build.

Prices have advanced this morning with the June contract currently up more than 18 cents as the market focuses on upcoming heat, the recent drop in output and stronger LNG demand expectations.
Technical Analysis

The June 25 natural gas contract closed down just under .030 on Thursday after early strength failed to breakout above weekly high resistance.
The morning rally topped out at a 3.723 high holding under Monday’s 3.747 high as resistance. Post-report selling dropping the June contract to a 3.527 low before closing the session at 3.592.
The market is coiling in a sideways range to be followed by a breakout. The rally has stalled near the 38% retracement resistance of the March-April downtrend at 3.640.
If the rally continues, the 50% retracement at 3.880 will become the next upside objective.
Bearish divergences continue to form on the 60-minute chart with lower highs being set. While not an outright sell signal, it may indicate the two week uptrend may be turning more neutral.
Daily continuation chart 10 day moving average support is at 3.490 today followed by the 200 day average at 3.140.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 56.03






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




