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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-2-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices continued to come under pressure Thursday amid weak demand, mild weather conditions and easing supply concerns.  Production levels in Canada are rebounding while output in the US hovers above 101 BCF.  Weather outlooks feature cooler than normal temps over much of the west central and eastern US next week thru nearly mid June.  This will keep gas fired cooling demand on the low side.  July futures settled 10.8 cents lower at $2.158.

 

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The EIA reported a larger than expected build of 110 BCF for the week ended May 26, leaving total stocks at 2.446 TCF.  The build was larger than the 5 yr avg injection of 101 BCF and much higher than last year’s build of 82 BCF.  The year over year surplus now stands at 557 BCF while the 5 yr avg surplus expanded to 349 BCF.

Models currently suggest next week’s report will show another above average build in the 115 to 123 BCF range.  

 

 

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After closing down 5 days in a row, gas prices are trading higher this morning.  This year’s hurricane season officially kicked off yesterday.  The NHC is currently monitoring an early storm in the Gulf of Mexico that is slowly moving south.  Forecasters have the storm drifting southward, away from the Gulf Coast.  
 
 
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The spot month is currently up about 6 cents.  Gains could be difficult to maintain unless we see some real heat or a hurricane related supply disruption. 

Technical Analysis
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The July 23 natural gas contract has closed down five consecutive days trading down to a new life-of-contract low on Thursday at 2.136 before closing the day at 2.158, down .108 (4.8%).

2.030 is the next area of support under yesterday’s 2.136 low followed by 1.944, a weekly low set in late-March.

There have been six sell off attempts under 2.000 since late-February but each one has failed.
 

2.240-2.250 is near term resistance followed by the 10 day average at 2.410 and the 40 day average at 2.485.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 34.75

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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