

Spot month gas prices continued to lose steam yesterday as weather outlooks trended slightly cooler for the Midwest while a portion of curtailed output is expected to return next month. The market also factored in the commencement of tropical activity, with disturbances off the coasts of Mexico and Florida being tracked. The spot month dropped about 6%, settling 16.8 cents lower at $2.741.

Some analysts are predicting a turnaround in production cutbacks that have contributed to reducing the storage surplus. Production has averaged just under 100 BCF/day so far this month, which is still down about 2.2 BCF/day from 2023. Platts anticipates that output could rise back above 102 BCF/day in July due to higher prices and stronger summer demand projections. Output this morning is coming in at 100.7 BCF/day, up 0.3 BCF/day.
The EIA is expected to report a 6th straight lower than normal injections in today’s storage report. Refinitiv is calling for a build of 69 BCF in the week ended June 14. This compares to last year’s build of 92 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 83 BCF.
Early estimates for the week ending June 21 call for a build of 47 BCF which would once again fall well below historical estimates.

Prices are trading near unchanged this morning.

A heavy sell off in the natural gas market on Thursday by the spot July 24 contract as it traded down to a new weekly low at 2.723 before closing the session at 2.741, down .168 (5.8%).
The market has been in a downside correction for nearly two weeks after reaching a 5-month high at 3.159 last Tuesday. Once the correction ends, a rally back to possibly new price highs is expected.
The 38% retracement of the 2024 uptrend at 2.520 is the next key area of support. This retracement coincides with the 40 day moving average on the daily continuation chart at 2.510.
2.760-2.700 is the first area of resistance today followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.900.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -51.18






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