

Signs of rising output and forecasts for demand to taper off helped pressure the market ahead of the weekend. Friday’s delayed storage report did little to move the market as the build slightly exceeded expectations and fell short of historical comparisons for a 6th straight week. The spot month contract settled 3.6 cents lower at $2.705. For the week, prices fell about 6%.

The storage surplus has narrowed the past 6 weeks amid above normal temps and strong gas fired cooling demand. The EIA reported an injection of 71 BCF for the week ended Jun 14, 2 BCF higher than the avg estimate. Total gas in storage now stands at 3.045 TCF, 343 BCF above last year and 561 BCF above the 5 yr avg.
With record setting heat likely to continue into early July, the surplus is expected to further narrow. Expectations for this week's report covering the week ended Jun 21 suggest a build of 68 BCF, which would be 17 BCF lower than the 5 yr avg.
Temps across most of the US are expected to average above normal through mid July, helping maintain elevated gas fired power demand. Power burn hit highs last week of nearly 47 BCF/day but has since trended lower, coming in this morning at 45.6 BCF/day. Over the next 2 weeks, power burn is expected to average 43.9 BCF/day.
Total consumption is coming in this morning at 102.8 BCF/day. Demand is expected to taper off, averaging 100.4 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.

Returning output helped pressure prices early this morning, however climbing temps have since push prices higher on the day. July futures are currently up 3 to 4 cents.

The July 24 closed down 3 out of 4 days in last week’s holiday-shortened trade losing .176 (6.1%) for the week to settle Friday at 2.705.
The market also closed down on a weekly basis for a 2nd consecutive week as it corrects following a 7-week rally higher.
The near term trend remains down with primary support today at 2.535 (40 day moving average) and 2.520 (38% retracement support of 2024 uptrend).
Longer term support is 200 day moving average at 2.465 and the 50% retracement of the 2024 uptrend at 2.320.
Once support is found, a renewed rally back higher is expected. 10 day moving average resistance is currently at 2.875 with longer term weekly high resistance at 3.159.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -50.30






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