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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-9-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
 
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division Heather.Wine@stonex.com 
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20250609071633-2
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg
StoneX Commodity Indicator
image-20250609071536-1
 
Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Despite unsupportive fundamentals, including elevated storage injections and lackluster LNG feedgas demand, nat gas prices ended last week’s trade higher as the market prices in more seasonal strength.  This strength is being tied to the arrival of warmer temps later this month across the East, which should boost cooling demand. The conclusion of seasonal maintenance later in June should also contribute to overall demand growth.  Nat gas prices ended Friday’s session up 10.7 cents to settle at $3.784.   For the week, the July contract was up 33.7 cents, or nearly 10%.

image 113924
Source: Bloomberg, CME

LNG feedgas demand fell last week to its lowest level since December as seasonal maintenance continues to impact deliveries.  Flows at Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG came in at 2.8 BCF/day and 1.4 BCF/day, respectively while flows to Plaquemines and Freeport LNG hit all time highs on Friday of 2.8 BCF/day and 2.2 BCF/day, respectively. Total feedgas demand for Friday was pegged at 14.1 BCF/day.  Flows fell to 13.2 BCF/day on Saturday but are back up to 14 BCF/day as of this morning. 

image 113925​​​​
Source: Bloomberg

Production levels are rebounding, ending last week at 105.8 BCF/day.  Output over the weekend averaged 106.1 BCF/day and remains at that level this morning.  This is stronger than the current month to date average of 105.2 BCF/day.  

Gas drilling rigs rose by 5 last week to 114 rigs while oil drilling rigs fell by 9 to a total of 442 rigs.  Oil drilling rigs are now at their lowest since Nov 2021.

image 113926
Source: Bloomberg

Prices are coming under pressure this morning with the spot month currently trading 20 cents lower amid rising output and sluggish feedgas demand.  Weather driven demand is also expected to remain moderate this week given the absence of heat across Texas and the Eastern US.

Technical Analysis

 

image-20250609071743-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Late day strength on Friday rallied the July 25 natural gas contract up to a new weekly high at 3.817 before closing the session at 3.784.

For the day, the July contract was up .107 (2.9%).  For the week, the contract was up .337 (9.8%).

The July 25 contract broke out to a new 4-week high on Friday and the 2026 strip also broke out above trend line resistance. 

If follow through buying doesn’t materialize today, prices could quickly reverse back lower creating a “bull trap”.  

Friday’s 3.817 high is near term resistance for the July contract followed by the 3.840 May high.

Last week’s 3.630 low extending down to the daily continuation chart 10 day moving average at 3.590 is primary support.  

If broken, the bottom of the gap created on last Monday’s open at 3.450 will become the next area of support.

Trend following indexes are bullish along with 10, 40 and 200 day moving average alignment.  Funds also added just over 39,000 contracts to their existing long position which is estimated at 205,903 contracts.   Everything appears set up for a continued rally higher.  Will it materialize?

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 56.74

image 113930
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 113929
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 113928
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 113457
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 113456
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
Forward Curve Pricing
image 113927
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. 
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