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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 7-11-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator History
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Fundamentals & Weather

Market sentiment shifted Monday to expectations for more summer heat that should intensify during the latter half of July. Record cooling demand is expected from Texas with 4 days of record heat expected over the next 2 weeks.  Aug futures settled 3%, or 8.7 cents higher at $2.669.

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Temps are expected to average much above normal in CA and TX while mostly seasonal temps are seen across the Midwest and East during the 6-10 day period.   The 11-15 day period will see above normal temps continue from the West to Texas with the Midwest and East continuing to average normal to slightly warmer than normal.  The NWS forecast is more supportive though with broad coverage of warmer than normal temps expecting during the 8-14 day period.  

 

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Production has pulled back slightly with recent growth appearing to have stalled out.  Some of the slowdown could be weather related however given the pullback in drilling activity, this could be the start of a long term trend. Last week’s increase of 11 nat gas drilling rigs marked the first increase in 10 weeks.   
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Prices continue to recover from last week’s drop this morning, trading a touch higher this morning as overnight weather data is even more supportive.

 

Technical Analysis
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The August 23 natural gas contract rallied off 40 day moving average support on Monday to begin the new week of trade gaining .087 (3.7%) to close the day at 2.669.

The August contract closed just under 10 day moving average resistance at 2.690 today.

With 40 day moving average support holding the past two sessions, the trend remains sideways to higher.

2.800-2.820 is the next area of resistance above the 10 day moving average followed by the 2.936 late-June high.  

40 day moving average support is at 2.580 today followed by upper wedge trend line support at 2.450.  As long as the August contract trades above this trend line support, the bullish wedge triggered three weeks ago will remain viable.

Moving Average Index – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index -57.74

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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