By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles
Spot month gas prices rose 9% Wednesday to a 3 week high amid a drop in output and forecasts for more heat over the second half of July. Current heat across TX and other parts of the country has already boosted power burn to record levels this week. Aug futures settled 52.6 cents higher at $6.689, the highest settle since June 22.
Due to the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline, Russian gas exports on the 3 main lines into Germany dropped to 1.3 BCF/day on Tue from 1.6 BCF/day on Monday. The EU is urging members to cut gas demand by incentivizing industries to use less gas as it prepares for possible further cuts to Russian supply. The pipeline is expected to return to service around July 21. Gas prices in Europe are trading at 4 month highs near $54.
Reuters is calling for a build of 58 BCF for the week ended July 8. This compares to last year’s build of 49 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 55 BCF.
The latest forecast from the NOAA shows hotter than normal temps across the entire US except for parts of the West and a small section of the SE. This will keep power burn strong while tightening US balances.
Natural gas prices were up sharply on Wednesday following Tuesday’s sell off with the spot August 22 contract gaining .526 or 8.5% to close the day at 6.689.
The trend remains up with the 38.2% retracement of the past month downtrend at 6.975 being the next area of resistance.
If 6.975 resistance is reached and broken, the 50% retracement at 7.485 will become the next upside objective.
Primary support remains the 10 day moving average which held as support on Tuesday’s sell off and is currently at 6.060.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index -50.34
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Rising oil prices are becoming a bigger concern for investors as geopolitical tensions threaten to reignite inflation pressures. The latest developments in the Middle East highlight how energy markets can quickly reshape the outlook for equities and interest rates.
June 11 – Iran-related headlines are again moving the markets this morning, along with more inflation related data that was released. Stock futures are mostly higher to start the day, while the VIX is also elevated to trade near 21. The dollar index is trading near 100.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14% as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten on rising inflation concerns. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower overnight.
June 10 – Stocks fell and crude oil prices rallied after President Trump posted a message essentially saying that Iran had “taken too long to negotiate a deal,” and that “now they will have to pay the price!” Additional volatility came from this morning’s consumer inflation data, which came in hot, but similar to expectations. That allowed stock futures to come off their session lows. The VIX is trading near 21 at this hour, after trading as high as 22.5 earlier in the session. The dollar index is trading near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.12%. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly higher this morning, along with the energies.
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