

Snapping a 3 day losing streak, the spot month nat gas contract gained more than 2% on Friday amid short covering and expectations for stronger weather demand. Hopes for export demand to pick up following Hurricane Beryl also added strength. Aug futures settled 6.1 cents higher at $2.329, marking the first weekly gain following 4 weeks of losses.

Demand was projected to be very strong this past weekend into the early portion of this week as heat out West was forecast to move South and East. Outlooks did still convey cooler trends for later this week which will drop demand back to more normal levels.
Total demand rose to a high of 104 BCF/day over the weekend and is coming in this morning at 105.6 BCF/day. Demand should see more strength tomorrow before easing back during the latter half of July given current weather forecasts.
Freeport was on track to pull in about 0.1 BCF/day of gas Friday but ended up pulling in almost nothing. Reports suggest Freeport will pull in a very small amount of gas today however markets may not react until there is confirmation. With Freeport LNG still down, LNG feedgas demand so far this month is averaging about 11.7 BCF/day, down 1 BCF/day from July 2024.
Production hit 102 BCF/day on Sunday and is projected this morning at 101.6 BCF/day.

Prices are sinking this morning with the spot month down about 4% as demand concerns linger given the continued outage at Freeport while weather forecasts are showing heat fading across potions of the central and eastern US next week.
The next 15 days are forecast to yield 188 CDDs which is near the 10 yr norm but cooler than last year. Since Friday, CDDs fell by 7.9 with cooler changes made to the Rockies, Plains and Midwest. Heat will endure the next 2 days across much of the US before a cooldown occurs across the East.
This morning’s 6-10 day outlook from Maxar shows below to briefly below normal temps across the Plains and Midwest. Temps in Texas and the South will average near to slightly below normal while heat remains in the West.

The spot August 24 natural gas contract rallied higher into Friday close settling at 2.329, closing up on a weekly basis for the 1st time in 5 weeks.
Prices have gapped lower to begin the new week of trade with the August contract currently down over .100 in today’s early trade.
The 50% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend at 2.320 was broken last week turning the 61.8% retracement at 2.120 into the next downside objective.
The gap created on today’s open at 2.260-2.310 is near term resistance followed by the 10 day moving average currently at 2.350.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 36.25






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



