

Gas prices tanked yesterday by about 7% after it became evident that Freeport would remain operating below full capacity with a gradual resumption of exports anticipated as damage is repaired. Forecasts for less heat and declining demand later this week across the central and eastern US added further pressure. Spot month futures settled 17.1 cents lower at $2.158.

Freeport said Monday that it would restart one of its 3 liquefaction trains this week as power had been restored to the region with the other 2 trains restarting shortly thereafter. Production levels following the restart will likely be at reduced rates for some time as repairs continue to be made. Feedgas deliveries to Freeport remained minimal on Monday with Freeport on track to pull in 0.4 BCF/day today.
Dry output is coming in 1.5 BCF lower this morning at 100.1 BCF/day. This is being offset by a drop of 1.4 BCF in total demand. The drop is demand is a result of power burn falling 1.1 BCF/day and LNG feedgas demand dropping 0.4 BCF/day to 10.8 BCF/day

The market is trading higher this morning as the market prices in strong weather related demand. Yesterday ranked as the 8th hottest day on record with 15.81 CDDs nationally. Heat is expected to continue through tomorrow before a cold front pushes through.

The August 24 natural gas contract gapped lower to begin Monday’s session and was heavily sold into the close losing .171 (7.3%) to settle the day at 2.158.
Volume was at a 1-month high of 189,516 contracts.
The 61.8% retracement of the 2024 uptrend at 2.120 is the next area of support under Monday’s 2.147 low.
If 2.120 support is broken, the 78% retracement at 1.850 will become the next area of support.
The top of the gap created on Monday’s open between 2.260-2.310 which coincides with the 10 day moving average at 2.315 is primary resistance today.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 36.31






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



