

With output ticking higher and weather models showing less heat across the NE for the start of August, nat gas prices tumbled on Monday. A decline in feedgas demand along with healthy storage levels added to the bearish momentum. Aug futures settled 24 cents lower at $3.325.

While feedgas flows have trended higher overall this month, we continue to see day to day fluctuations. LNG feedgas demand fell to 15.2 BCF/day yesterday. Following reports that Golden Pass nominated feedgas for the first time late Thursday, nominations at at the terminal were revised down to zero for both the weekend and for Monday. Feedgas flows at Elba Island trended back towards normal while flows at Corpus Christi fell 0.6 BCF/day to 1.5 BCF/day. Feedgas demand this morning is up 0.1 BCF/day at 15.3 BCF/day.
Temperatures this week could prove to be among the hottest of the summer so far. Demand expectations are rising in response to the expected heat. Platts expects power burn to average 48.5 BCF/day over the next week with the 8-14 day average coming in at 51.8 BCF/day. So far this month, power burn is running 2.5 BCF/day lower than last year at 47.2 BCF/day.

Despite forecasts for above normal conditions and strong demand, gas prices continue to trade lower this morning amid robust output and ample amounts of gas in storage.
The spot month contract is currently 8 cents lower.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract gapped lower on Monday by .100+ from Friday’s close and was heavily sold into the close.
By day’s end, the August contract had lost .240 (6.7%) closing the day at 3.325.
Daily continuation chart 10, 40 and 200 day moving average support was broken turning the near term and possibly long term trend back down.
The lower-3.200 area is near term support followed by the 3.149 low set two weeks ago. Longer term support is the 2.859 April low.
The 10, 40 and 200 day moving averages have converged between 3.405-3.520 and are primary resistance. The top of the gap created on Monday’s open is at 3.495.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 42.53






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




