

The nat gas market discounted forecasts for high heat and humidity across the East over the next few days, focusing instead on near record output and inconsistent LNG feedgas demand. Additional pressure yesterday stemmed from the Weather Desk removing 8 CDDs from its 10-15 day forecast. The spot month gas contract settled 7.3 cents lower at $3.252.

Estimates for tomorrow’s storage report covering the week ended July 18 suggest a build of 30 BCF. While this matches the 5 yr avg, it would be the smallest addition since early April but would still outperform last year’s build of 20 BCF. Early estimates for the week in progress show another similarly sized injection of 25 BCF.
Robust production levels have largely contributed to the recent sell off. Including today’s estimate of 106.3 BCF/day, nat gas supply flow has averaged 106.4 BCF/day over the past week. The month to date average of 106 BCF/day is up 3.2 BCF/day from last year.

Hotter than normal temps are expected to peak early in the 6-10 day period across the eastern half of the US. A pattern change is forecast for the 2nd half of the period as a high pressure system from Canada travels south, leading to cooler than normal conditions across the Midwest and East. The cooler readings are forecast to persist through Aug 6.
The spot month contract is currently trading 17 cents lower as the market prices in less heat for late July into early August.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract traded down for a 2nd day on Tuesday bouncing off lower-3.200 support to close the day at 3.252. down .073.
Lower-3.200 support has been broken in today’s early trade turning the 3.149 low set two weeks ago into the next area of support.
60-minute chart RSI is extremely oversold (below 20) likely indicating a short-covering rally may form ahead of tomorrow’s weekly storage report once 3.149 support is tested.
If 3.149 support is broken, the 2.859 April low will become the next downside objective.
Former lower-3.200 support is now near term resistance followed by 3.290-3.300. Longer term resistance levels are the 10, 40 and 200 day moving averages currently between 3.420-3.505.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 39.67






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