

Prices edged a touch higher yesterday following the 3 day selloff as a post storage report price spike proved to be short lived. Yesterday’s storage data delivered a bullish surprise, indicating the supply/demand balance tightened more than expected last week. Shifting forecasts for the start of August also kept the upside in check. Following sweltering heat this week, a cooldown to normal conditions is expected across the Midwest while below normal temps take hold across the Midcon and NE regions. The Aug contract settled 1.7 cents higher Thursday at $3.094.

Coming in 10 BCF lower than expected, a build of 23 BCF was reported for the week ended July 18. The Midwest led the build with supplies rising 16 BCF while the South Central region posted a withdraw of 5 BCF. The number still managed to exceed last year’s build of 20 BCF but fell short of the 5 yr avg build of 30 BCF. Stocks currently stand at 3.075 TCF, 153 BCF below last year and 171 BCF above the 5 yr avg. Stocks have risen 1.302 TCF since the start of injection season which is the 4th highest build for the timeframe since 2010.
With a surge in demand expected over the next week, injections are likely to moderate for the next 2 reports.
LNG feedgas demand has ranged from 15.2 BCF/day to 15.9 BCF/day this past week. Today’s estimate is on the low end at 15.2 BCF/day. Despite the fluctuation, month to date flows are averaging 15.7 BCF/day. Golden Pass has seen sustained feedgas flows for the past several days, indicating commissioning activity could soon pick up.

Prices are trading flat to higher so far this morning as strong near term demand is being offset by ample supplies. Output has risen back to 106.3 BCF/day, according to Platts. This is up from yesterday’s level of 105.6 BCF/day.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract gained .017 on Thursday settling at 3.094, the 1st higher close of the week.
The August contract failed to push under the 3.061 low set on Wednesday which coincides with the 200 day moving average on the 2026 calendar strip.
If 3.061 support is broken, 3.000 and the 2.859 April low will become the next areas of support for the August contract.
Thursday’s 3.166 high is near term resistance followed by 3.200-3.210.
Trend following indicators remain bearish with daily RSI at 39.80, well above the sub-30 level considered “oversold”.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 39.72






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