

Following a one day decline, the spot month nat gas contract turned back higher Wednesday as the market braced for today’s storage report. With estimates ranging anywhere from a small injection to a small withdrawal, the current surplus is expected to see a healthy contraction. Sep futures settled 7.1 cents higher yesterday at $2.219.

Stocks are expected to rise by a much smaller than normal 6 BCF for the week ended Aug 9. This compares to last year’s build of 33 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 43 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 3.276 TCF, narrowing the 5 yr avg surplus to 13.4% from the current 15%. Estimates range anywhere from a draw of 6 BCF to a build of 26 BCF. We have not seen a withdrawal during August since 2010 with the lowest August build of 11 BCF reported back in 2016.
Looking ahead to next week’s report, estimates range from a build of 30 BCF to 50 BCF. This compares to last year’s build of 23 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 41 BCF.
Output remains on the lighter side amid maintenance projects and curtailments. Today's output is estimated at 101.7 BCF/day, down from yesterday's 102 BCF/day. This is lower than the month to date average of 102.2 BCF/day.

Prices are currently trading higher with this morning's storage report highly anticipated to be bullish.
This morning’s forecast is showing cooler trend versus yesterday during the 6-10 day period. Cooling degree days declined by 4.7 for the period.

The September 24 natural gas contract turned back up on Wednesday following Tuesday’s sell off rallying up to a new 4-week high at 2.279 before closing the day at 2.219, up .071.
The September contract has closed up 6 out of the past 7 sessions testing daily continuation chart 40 day moving average resistance in Tuesday’s session.
The 200 day moving average at 2.335 extending up to 2.350 remains the initial upside objective for this current uptrend. 2.350 is the 38% retracement of the June-July downtrend.
If 2.350 resistance is reached and broken, the 50% retracement at 2.500 and the 62.8% retracement at 2.655 will become the next areas of resistance.
10 day moving average support is at 2.105 today with longer term support at 1.856.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -52.51






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



