

The nat gas market reacted positively to yesterday’s unseasonable withdrawal but ultimately settled down on the day given storage levels still remain elevated. The selloff was also inspired by profit taking and weak cash markets along with expectations for higher output as maintenance eases. The Sep contract settled 2.2 cents lower at $2.197.

The EIA reported a rare storage withdrawal of 6 BCF for the week ended Aug 2. This was the first August withdrawal since 2006. Last year, stocks rose 33 BCF while the past 5 years saw an avg build of 43 BCF. Stocks currently stand at 3.264 TCF, 375 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 209 BCF above last year. The average rate of injections this season has been 21% lower than the 5 yr avg.
Looking ahead to next week’s report, a return to injections is expected. With balances loosening up by more than 3 BCF/day this week, estimates range from 22 BCF to 46 BCF. The number will compare to last year’s build of 23 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 41 BCF.
According to Maxar, the next 15 days are forecast to yield 158.3 CDDs which is near the 10 yr norm and on the high side of the 30 yr norm.
Hot conditions are forecast to continue across the south central US in the near term while readings turn cooler in the East over the weekend. Cooler conditions will likely prevail across the eastern US during the 11-15 day period while above normal temps dominate the Interior West to the Central US.
Power burn is expected to trend lower over the next week, averaging 44.9 BCF/day before climbing back up to an avg of 47 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.

While we are seeing some weakness this morning, the nat gas trend remains sideways.

The September 24 natural gas contract rallied up to a new 4-week high at 2.301 on Thursday but failed to clear 200 day moving average resistance at the 2.335 level.
With resistance holding for a 2nd day, the September traded lower into the close settling the day at 2.197, down .022.
With the September contract failing to rally above 200 day moving average and 38% retracement resistance at the 2.335-2.350 level this week, the trend may be ready to turn back down.
10 day moving average support is at 2.125 today followed by trend line support from the 1.856 low near 2.000. Longer term support is at 1.856.
2.335-2.350 remains primary resistance. A breakout above 2.350 will turn the 50% retracement of the June-July downtrend at 2.500 into the next area of resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -49.38






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




