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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 8-26-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Nat gas traded mostly rangebound Thursday even as storage levels increased more than expected.  While the market broke briefly following the EIA report, Sep futures settled 4.5 cents higher at $9.375. With the Sep contract expiring on Monday, prices could remain volatile amid relatively low volume. 

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Coming in higher than expected, storage levels rose 60 BCF in the week ended Aug 19 leaving total gas in storage at 2.579 TCF.  The build was 14 BCF larger than the 5 yr avg and nearly double last year’s build of 60 BCF.  Injections in the East totaled 30 BCF, more than quadruple from the week prior.  Estimates for the week in progress suggest a build in the 52-58 BCF range.  

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A steady, hot pattern is expected in the West as we head into Sept.  The warm trend is expected to begin this weekend with day 5 looking to be the hottest of the forecast. Temps will also rise in the SW with temps expected to be the hottest since late July.  The Rockies will see some hotter temps during the 6-10 day period.  

The 11-15 day period is expected to rank 2nd highest since 1950 for CDDs in the Pacific region and 3rd highest in the Mountain region. 

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TTF prices continue to trade higher every day which could be pulling US prices up with it this morning. Strength is occurring in anticipation of Norwegian outages in Sep, lower French nuclear output and uncertainty over Russian gas flows following maintenance next week on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. 
Technical Analysis
 
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The September 22 natural gas contract has broken out above 9.450 resistance in today’s early trade after holding above 10 day moving average support the past two sessions.

Prices have held up well following Tuesday volatile reversal after reaching 10 resistance.

The 10.028 high set on Monday remains primary resistance.  A breakout above this resistance would be a very bullish technical signal turning the December 2000 monthly high at 10.200 into the next area of resistance.

Longer term resistance is the 100% Fibonacci extension beginning at the December 2021 low at 11.390.

10 day moving average support is at 9.290 today followed by 9.050 weekly low support.

Technical Indicators:  

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 62.71

Foward Strip and Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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