

Sep futures continued to come under pressure ahead of today’s expiration. The market has pretty much discounted record heat across large portions of the US as it will be short lived. While power burn has soared this week, demand is expected to quickly move back towards normal levels as we head into next month. The Sep contract fell another 5.2 cents yesterday to settle at $1.904

Power burn yesterday hit 52.4 BCF/day, 1.8 BCF higher on the day. Power burn for today is estimated at 51.9 BCF/day and is projected by Platts to average 44 BCF/day over the next week. The biggest change in demand yesterday occurred in the res/comm sector, which fell 3.2 BCF/day. Total demand came in at 108.3 BCF/day. Demand is expected to drop back towards 100 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.
The EIA is expected to report yet another below normal build in tomorrow’s report however the surplus will likely remain well above 300 BCF heading into Sep. Platts is calling for a 36 BCF injection which compares to last year’s build of 28 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 43 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 3.335 TCF, leaving the 5 yr avg surplus at 362 BCF.
The surplus is likely to continuing falling for the week in progress given heat across the Midcontinent and NE. Early estimates suggest a build of 33 BCF.

Prices are currently trading higher on the day with Sep futures expiring at today's close.

Today’s expiring September 24 natural gas contract has closed down six consecutive sessions settling Tuesday at 1.904.
The 1.856 low set last month during expiration of the August 24 contract remains primary support. This support is also the 78% retracement of the 2024 uptrend at 1.850.
If 1.850 support is broken, the final 88% retracement at 1.680 will become the next area of support.
The October 24 contract which will be the spot contract tomorrow settled .181 above the price of the September contract on Tuesday. This will create another large downside gap on the daily continuation chart tomorrow.
2.000 is near term resistance for the September contract followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.075.
Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 35.92






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