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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-13-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Near term nat gas prices advanced sharply Tuesday following a drop in output while warmer weather trends suggested lingering late summer cooling demand.  Prices rose despite feedgas reductions to Freeport’s LNG plant over the past few days.  Oct futures settled 13.5 cents higher at $2.743.

 

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Platts is calling for a build of 49 BCF in the week ended Sep 8.  This compares to the 5 yr avg build of 76 BCF and last year’s build of 74 BCF.  If correct, this would mark the 10th straight narrowing of the 5 yr avg surplus.  For the week in progress, Platts is calling for another below average build of 73 BCF.

There were rumors of possible errors in the amount of gas in storage in the South Central region which lent further supportive to prices. 

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Freeport LNG has seen sustained depressed flows this week with the nature of the disruption unknown. Freeport’s intake this morning has fallen to zero, suggesting a persistent outage at the plant.  

Gains yesterday coincided with a decline in production levels.  According to Platts, output slipped  yesterday to 102 BCF/day, down 0.7 BCF/day from Monday.  Output this morning is stable at 102 BCF/day.  

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Prices are trimming gains this morning as temps should be comfortable during the 2nd half of Sep. Some small degree day adjustments were made overnight with models showing limited heating and/or cooling demand over the next 2 weeks. 
Technical Analysis
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Natural gas prices were well bid on Tuesday as the spot October 23 contract broke out above 10 and 40 day moving average resistance in early trade rallying up to a 2.782 high before closing the day at 2.743, up .135 (5.2%).  Daily volume was high at 202,189 contracts.

An open gap on the daily continuation chart created last week between 2.710-2.735 was closed on Tuesday’s rally.

Prices are down slightly this morning after yesterday’s rally failed to clear 2.800 resistance.

If 2.800 resistance is broken, 2.860 and 3.000 will become the next areas of resistance.  A breakout above 3.000, which includes the 200 day moving average, would be a very bullish technical signal.

10 day moving average support is at 2.670 today followed by the 40 day average at 2.645.

A 5-month trend line near 2.500 remains primary support.  A close under this area will turn the trend back down.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 55.32

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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