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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-15-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20250915070608-2

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

StoneX Commodity Indicator

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Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Following several days of selling pressure, the spot month nat gas contract managed to close higher on Friday, though it still held below the $3 level.  Ample supply and weak LNG feedgas demand counterbalanced uncertainty around weather driven demand.  Oct NG settled Friday’s session 7 tics higher at $2.941 but closed 10.7 cents lower on the week.

This morning’s forecast shows warmer changes to both the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods.  Above normal will be widespread in coverage, with the exception of the East Coast, where below normal temps are associated with high pressure over the upcoming weekend. Warmer than normal conditions are then projected to return to the region late in the 6–10 day period.

image 119445

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Output has been trending higher since Thursday, coming in this morning at 107.3 BCF/day.  This is 1.1 BCF/day higher than Friday’s level and 0.9 BCF higher on the day. Month to date, output is averaging 106.5 BCF/day, which is more than 5 BCF/day higher than Sep 2024.

The latest rig count data suggests little change in producer sentiment. Nat gas drilling rigs held at 118 rigs last week, which is 21 rigs more than a year ago.  

image 119446

Source: Bloomberg

LNG feedgas demand remains in line with Friday’s level of 15.7 BCF/day.  Feedgas flows to Sabine Pass fell by 1 BCF/day last week and may see additional pressure this week due to planned maintenance on the Creole Trail Pipeline. Maintenance has also curbed flows to Calcasieu Pass LNG and Corpus Christi while Cove Point is scheduled to shut this week for about a month of planned maintenance.

image 119447

Source: Bloomberg

Cooling demand is expected to climb over the next 2 weeks as highs in the mid 80’s and 90’s gain in coverage over much of the country.  

Prices are pushing higher this morning with the spot month currently up about 3 cents.  

Technical Analysis

image-20250915070712-3

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The October 25 natural gas contract rallied up to a 3.198 high in last Monday’s session but gave back all the early week gains by Friday’s close settling the day at 2.941.

For the week, the October contract was down .107 or 3.5% while closing down on a weekly basis for the 1st time in 3 weeks.

Last week’s breakout above 40 day moving average resistance on the daily continuation chart failed to hold as the October contract closed back under 10 and 40 day moving average support last week.

With 10 and 40 day moving average support broken, the trend is now bearish with last week’s 2.897 low being near term support. 

Longer term support is the October contract low at 2.738 followed by the 2025 spot contract low of 2.622 posted three weeks ago.

40 day moving average resistance is at 2.975 today followed by the 10 day average at 3.025.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 45.91

image 119441

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119443

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119444

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119448

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 118877

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 119440

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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