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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-18-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Oct futures rallied early last week on maintenance related production losses. Production levels hovered around 100 BCF/day for much of the week but off of recent highs due to maintenance/repair work.  Further support later in the week stemmed from a lower than normal injection and an uptick in volumes flowing to Freeport LNG.  The spot month contract settled 6.4 cents lower on the day but up 1.5% from the previous week.  

 

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After 5 straight weeks of declines, the nat gas rig count rose by 8 rigs last week to 121 rigs.  Dry output continues to hold in the mid 102 BCF/day range.

Flows to Freeport LNG continued to climb on Friday, reaching 1.9 BCF.  The increase helped push total LNG feedgas deliveries to 13.2 BCF/day.  Cove Point LNG is set to shut for a week from Sep 21-29 due to planned maintenance.  

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National demand levels should be fairly moderate over the next 2 weeks as much of the US experiences comfortable, shoulder season conditions.  With summer heat waning, power burn has fallen to its lowest since early June.  As of Friday, gas fired power demand was estimated at 38.2 BCF/day, down more than 10% from the month to date avg of 42.7 BCF/day. Power burn fell to a low of 36.5 BCF/day over the weekend and is expected to average 37.9 BCF/day over the next week.

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Chevron has resumed full production at its Wheatstone facility after suffering a fault last week that cut output by 20%.  The restart indicates Chevron is able to keep exporting fuel despite escalated industrial action over the weekend to 24 hour stoppages.  While strikes are set to run until the end of the month, work stoppages could be extended until Oct 14.  
Early selling has dried up with prices now trading higher on the day.
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Natural gas prices remain in a sideways range with the spot October 23 contract gaining .039 in last week’s trade closing Friday at 2.644.

Primary support is at the lower-2.500 area, a trend line beginning at the mid-April 1.944 low.  If this support is broken, it should signal the market has entered into a seasonal price break likely leading to a retest of lower-2.000 support.

Primary resistance begins at the 200 day moving average currently at 2.925 extending up to the lower-3.000 area where two highs have been set dating back to early-March.  A breakout above this resistance would be a very bullish technical signal.

Until support or resistance are broken, expect sideways, choppy trade.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 50.00

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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