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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-8-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20250908074711-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

StoneX Commodity Indicator

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Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Halting a 7 day winning streak, the spot month contract settled 2.6 cents lower on Friday at $3.048.  Despite the pullback, it still managed to notch a modest week over week gain of 5.1 cents.   Unseasonably cool conditions are expected to give way to much warmer conditions by mid-month while last week brought a return to above normal injections.  

Temps are projected to warm back up across the Central US over the next 5 days while the entire East coast will remain cooler than normal. The warming trend will expand eastward during the 6-10 day period with readings on the warmer side across the Midcon and South.  Above normal temps are forecast to be widespread in coverage during the 11-15 day period.

image 119006

Source: Bloomberg, CME

LNG feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 15.6 BCF/day, down 0.5 BCF/day due to declines at Corpus Christi and the Calcasieu terminal.  Flows are down despite record volumes of 3.4 BCF/day to Plaquemines over the weekend.  Freeport LNG is also on track to take in more nat gas following an outage on Saturday.  Gas flowing to Freeport is expected to reach 1.9 BCF/day today, up from Saturday’s level of 1.4 BCF/day.  

Power burn has fallen below 40 BCF/day, coming in this morning at 36.9 BCF/day.  Cooling demand will inch higher over the next 2 weeks, reaching an average of 43.3 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.  This increase will help push total consumption back up to an average of 102.9 BCF/day.  

image 119007

Source: Bloomberg

Production levels have retreated since hitting record highs above 108 BCF/day during late August. Output on Friday was estimated at 106.5 BCF/day, lower than the month to date average of 106.8 BCF/day.  Output trended lower over the weekend to 106.2 BCF/day but is back up this morning at 106.6 BCF/day.   The natural gas rig count fell by 1 rig last week to 118 rigs.  

image 119008

Source: Bloomberg

The Oct contract is trading about 8 cents higher this morning amid declining output while Freeport LNG returns to full service following the weekend outage. 

Technical Analysis

image-20250908074914-3

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The October 25 natural gas contract has been trending higher over the past two weeks adding .051 in last week’s holiday-shortened trade to close Friday at 3.048.

Daily settle above the 40 day moving average on the daily continuation chart on Friday is a bullish signal heading into today’s session.  But early buying today has yet to clear 3.140-3.150 resistance.

If 3.140-3.150 resistance is broken, 3.290-3.310 will become the next upside objective.

Bearish divergences forming on the 60-minute chart may indicate 3.140-3.150 resistance will hold.

If resistance holds, 40 day moving average support is at 3.045 followed by the 10 day average at 2.955. Longer term support is the 2.622 low set two weeks ago.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 59.09

image 119012

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119011

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119010

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 118878

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 118877

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 119009

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer

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(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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