Daily Petroleum

By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst

Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 12:00

Oil pulls back amid increased optimism over diplomatic negotiations

Yesterday (16), the most active Brent contract closed higher, totaling USD 99.39/bbl (+4.70%). WTI futures followed a similar path, ending the day at USD 94.69/bbl (+3.70%).

Even after confirmation of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon by the U.S., investors once again began pricing in physical market conditions more heavily, with supply disruptions of some refined products – especially jet fuel – in Europe and Asia helping to support prices across several energy commodities.

This morning (17), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading down 3.11%, quoted at USD 96.30/bbl as of 09:42 GMT. The market is reacting once again to the ten-day truce between Israel and Lebanon and the prospect of new talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, with expectations that renewed negotiations could open room for some geopolitical de-escalation.

U.S.–Iran talks end the week at a standstill, with Hormuz still blocked

The market ends the week oscillating between signs of diplomatic progress and the operational reality of a blockade that has lasted nearly 50 days. Trump stated that Tehran had agreed to conditions that include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although the Iranian regime has not commented on the matter.

Why this matters: The effects of a prolonged blockade are becoming increasingly visible, with reports of oil and refined product shortages across Asia, Europe, and Africa.

As the last energy cargoes from the Persian Gulf reached Asian and European markets in early April, the effects of the suspension of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are already becoming more evident in these regions.
According to the IEA, Europe has “around six weeks of jet fuel inventories,” reflecting elevated risks regarding fuel availability on the continent in the very short term.
It is worth noting that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, announced after the collapse of talks over the previous weekend, adds an additional layer of restriction to exports, even though some sanctioned vessels have managed to cross.
In addition, the IEA also confirmed that it may take up to two years for a significant portion of Middle Eastern oil and gas production disrupted by the conflict to be restored, highlighting the long-term effects of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

What to expect: The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon adds downward pressure to financial markets, given expectations that this move could encourage a definitive peace resolution between Tehran and Washington later this weekend.

At the same time, the disconnect between exchange-traded prices and the physical market remains evident, as the global balance situation begins to deteriorate at a faster pace.
In this sense, next Monday’s session (20) should reflect the diplomatic outcomes of the next two days, with investor attention remaining focused on talks mediated by Pakistan.

Energy

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

WTI and Brent Crude Are Now Reading the Strait of Hormuz Differently

WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.

Editorial TeamFri, 07 Aug 2026, 15:40

Energy

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