By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (23), the most traded Brent contract closed higher, reaching USD 105.07/bbl (+3.10%). WTI futures followed a similar trend, ending the day at USD 95.85/bbl (+3.11%).
Oil prices climbed for the fourth consecutive session, driven primarily by concerns over a potential escalation in tensions among the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Additionally, the seizure of more vessels in the Persian Gulf and the resignation of Iran’s chief negotiator have heightened expectations of prolonged restrictions on energy product flows from the Middle East, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
This morning (24), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading lower by 0.7%, quoted at USD 103.8/bbl as of 9:00 AM. Reports suggesting that Iran’s Foreign Minister may travel to Islamabad this Friday to resume peace talks with the United States are contributing to bearish price pressures.
This morning, Pakistani government sources confirmed the return of Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aracqui, to Islamabad by the end of the day, renewing optimism about a potential resumption of peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran. So far, there has been no confirmation regarding the U.S. delegation’s travel to Pakistan.
Why This Matters: After a week marked by heightened fears of another escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts, confirmation of potential diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran has reignited expectations for the possible lifting of blockades imposed by Iranian and U.S. forces in the Strait of Hormuz, putting downward pressure on market prices.
What to Expect: Despite the potential resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad, the market remains cautious about signs of reconciliation between the two nations, with this bearish pressure potentially being short-lived depending on the progress of the discussions.
Yesterday, StoneX Market Intelligence published its third revision of diesel B demand, diesel A, and biodiesel estimates in Brazil for 2026. While maintaining projections for a 1.9% growth, totaling 70.8 million m³, the study highlighted significant changes in expectations for Brazil’s domestic diesel balance this year.
Key Highlights: Domestic diesel A production gained momentum in the first quarter, growing by 4.5%, reflecting refiners’ efforts to increase supply amid uncertainties in the international market.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
The oil market keeps watching the Strait of Hormuz, but the tighter pressure on fuel is building in refining. With a large share of global capacity offline and unplanned outages carrying no repair timeline, diesel supply faces three fresh risks before winter.
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