By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (29), the most actively traded Brent contract closed higher, reaching USD 118.03/bbl (+6.10%). WTI futures followed a similar trajectory, ending the day at USD 106.88/bbl (+7.00%).
The movement reflected both the sharp decline in U.S. inventories—with the DOE reporting a record volume of U.S. crude exports last week—and the deadlock in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which heightened concerns over a prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern supply.
This morning (30), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading down 3.6%, priced at USD 114.74/bbl as of 10:16 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of USD 126.4/bbl—the highest level since March 2022. The widespread volatility reflects uncertainties surrounding U.S. decisions regarding the next steps in the conflict.
U.S. Considers Strategies to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Media reports indicated that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has prepared a set of military options to present to President Trump this Thursday (30). The plans range from a series of "short and powerful" strikes on Iranian infrastructure to operations aimed at partial control of the Strait of Hormuz using ground forces.
Why This Matters: The possibility of further escalation through U.S. military action in Iran has contributed to pushing prices to their highest levels since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, as investors factor in risks associated with extended Middle Eastern tensions and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Outlook: One of the plans being assessed by CENTCOM involves strikes on Iran's production infrastructure, further fueling fears of reduced Iranian supply capacity.
What to Expect: Unless a definitive solution is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to continue rising.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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