By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (07), Brent’s most active contract closed with a moderate decline, ending the session at USD 100.06/bbl (-1.20%) after fluctuating with losses of up to USD 5/bbl. WTI futures followed a similar trajectory, retreating to USD 94.81/bbl (-0.28%) in a session marked by sharp movements and swift reversals.
During the early session, optimism surrounding progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a temporary memorandum to end the conflict continued to weigh negatively on prices. However, as the afternoon progressed, Iran’s rejection of the U.S. proposal and attacks on maritime assets in the Persian Gulf reduced the bearish momentum in the market.
This morning (08), Brent is trading steadily around USD 100.28/bbl (+0.34%) after rising up to 3% early in the Asian session on reports of fresh clashes. The market is balancing Trump’s signals that the ceasefire remains intact against growing skepticism over the possibility of a definitive peace agreement.
U.S. and Iranian forces engaged directly again in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday (07). Three U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked during their transit through the strait, with President Donald Trump stating that the vessels sustained no damage. Tehran, on the other hand, accused Washington of violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian tanker and conducting aerial offensives on civilian areas on Qeshm Island.
Why this matters: Tehran’s rejection of the memorandum of understanding and the resumption of attacks between U.S. and Iranian forces continue to keep risk premiums elevated, with oil futures returning to trading above USD 100/bbl amid waning optimism around negotiations.
Overview: According to Trump, the vessels successfully navigated the strait “under fire,” with Iranian attackers suffering “significant damage.”
What to expect: The resumption of attacks between the U.S. and Iran reduces the diplomatic avenues available to revive discussions surrounding the memorandum of understanding. Consequently, market sentiment points toward a rebound in prices until further efforts to resume negotiations are observed.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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