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Early Morning Update - April 17, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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The Class III and Cheese rally continued Tuesday for the third day in a row on strong volume. Over 3,100 Class III and 1,305 Cheese futures changed hands Tuesday 2024 prices pushed higher led by the a continuation of a short-covering rally nearby we’ve seen in some time. About half of all Class III trade volume took place in the May contract (1,657 contracts) and open interest declined by 575 contracts (256 total volume down 61 in Open Interest in May Cheese). Cheese futures also saw good trading volume through December 2025 yesterday. Spot Dry Whey gained 2 cents and 2024 futures finished higher also lending a supportive had to the Class III trade yesterday.

The Class III/Cheese futures rally again seems to be leading more robust spot market buying. Blocks gained 4.25 cents on 11 trades while barrels gains 3.75 cents on 7 trades leaving both at $1.6100 Tuesday. There is fresh cheese out there but the buyers are now the clear aggressors, which coincides with some anecdotal comments of better demand in the country recently. Of course, we’ve seen this before and not too long ago. Block cheese pushed into the $1.60s back in late January/early February only to have real demand up at that level slow considerably. Perhaps the same dynamic is in store now that we’re back over $1.60. At this time, we believe that cheese is done going down for now. We’re not sure on how high the price will go, but finding a home in the $1.60s in our opinion of the market now.

CME BLOCK CHEESE – Weekly Chart

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Spot Butter gained 2 cents on 3 trades Tuesday while spot NFDM fell 0.75 on 4 trades. Butter futures regained most of the lost ground last week and pushed higher in 2024. But also in 2025. The 2025 contracts have been well bid for a week or so but finally pushed to a place where some trading activity took place - ~6 cents higher yesterday to close the first half 2025 at $272.825. NFDM futures slumped Tuesday at least in part driven by a weaker GDT result.

The GDT price index was a fair amount weaker than  futures prices indicated prior to the event. The price  index increased by only 0.1% from the last event.  Prices for AMF were the strongest of any product  category in the GDT event (+1.7% from last event).  Cheddar prices were the weakest of any product category, -8.5% from last event.

North Asia purchases (which includes China) were  weaker than both the previous GDT event and year-  ago levels. Southeast Asia purchases increased from  both the last event and last year’s levels. Increases in  SMP purchases by Southeast Asia was a large part of  the support in total purchase volume. Africa purchases were also stronger than last event by more than  double and outpaced last year by more than triple.

The Wisconsin Cheesemakers Association is hosting their annual Cheese Expo “CheeseCon” this week in Milwaukee. The exposition kicked off yesterday and runs through tomorrow. We will update you on anything interesting we here in Milwaukee.

  • Dairy

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