
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Follow thru buying from last week kicked off a modestly higher Class III and Cheese futures trade early Monday, but perceived stability during the spot call stymied the rally. Block cheese closed 3 cents higher on 4 trades, but barrel cheese, which was a few pennies higher intra-spot session, finished unchanged on 6 trades. The takeaway is that despite what appears to be renewed spot buying interest, there are still some fresh loads showing up for sale. Given the recent nearby futures rally (think Jan, Feb), which re-established a healthy ~0.80/cwt premium to spot, yesterday’s spot session did little to entice continuing to push the futures higher and sellers rewarded the rally (much of which was long-liquidation in January). Keep in mind, last Monday the price of January Class III Milk printed $18.12.
Given the bigger picture of seemingly more aggressive spot buy side interest and the price behavior of futures over the past week, it appears to us that futures weakness for now will be viewed as an opportunity to buy. Overnight Class III and Cheese leaned lower and that continues this morning, as last week’s surge in prices leaves some air pockets beneath the market. Overall futures volume slowed slightly on Monday to 1,746 Class III and 615 Cheese futures with open interest down 102 and up 216, respectively.
Dry Whey futures were steady/higher again Monday as the forward curve continues to adjust higher to close the spreads with what has become a remarkably stable spot price in the low-70 cent range. As we indicated on Friday, spot and futures convergence can signal the end of the move. It doesn’t necessarily mean price weakness is imminent – they can continue to chop around current levels – but that the lion’s share of the move is done. We look for a mixed trade early today.
Butter and NFDM volume also slowed Monday with 102 Butter and just 91 NFDM contracts changing hands. The NFDM continues what appears to be a sideways correction distributing prices in a rather narrow trading range while the butter trade appears to be trying to justify last week’s futures bounce (Hint: butter is running out of reasons). Spot butter remains rangebound in this $2.45-$2.55 price range and the market seems content with that for now. Overall cream remains widely available as the window for a surge in demand appears to be closing. We look for a more mixed trade on NFDM and for a weaker trade on butter in the short term.
The USDA will release the December WASDE report at 11am Central Time today. Expectations generally seem to be for a fairly muted report as the USDA punts ahead of the inauguration of President Trump.

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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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