CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - February 19, 2025
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
The GDT index 0.6%, which was inline with SGX futures indications leading up to the auction. The decline was led by Cheddar cheese facing a 3.4% drop from previous event. WMP faced a curious movement with the contract 1 price dropping 2.3% but all other months increasing between 0.1% and 0.8% (Still, that puts cheddar around $2.20/lb.). Butter stood out in yesterday’s event as it rose across the board from 1.4% in contract 1 to the largest mover being contract 5 at 2.7%. Averaging out to a 2.2% increase across the contract month – that’s just over $3.30/lb. equivalent.
NFDM futures got a relief bump, which likely had less to do with GDT auction and more to do with the oversold nature of the NFDM market amid a steady spot call yesterday. The modest bump to futures came on decent volume of 344 contract with open interest gaining 221 contracts. Butter futures continued to decline – with the exception of February and March 2025 contracts – but selling pressure seemed to wain slightly as the spot butter market rejected Friday’s decline – bouncing 3.25 cents on 9 trades to close at $2.4100. The fundamental news (other than global price action) remains rather bearish for price – but as we said yesterday oversold conditions exist for futures, which can lead to unexpected bounces now.
Class III futures posted another light volume trading day as the market continues to chop sideways around current levels. Just over 800 Class III contracts marking the sixth day in a row of less than 1,000 contracts changing hands. On the surface this may not seem like a big deal, but the last stretch of similar volume was nearly two years ago – back in March 2023.
Sustained declines in trading volume is not a regular occurrence these days, but it does happen. And when it does it usually means the market is comfortable with the current pricing. Today, this dearth in volume appears to underscore the continued opposing themes: fresh block cheese availability is rather snug presently AND the trade is largely expecting more cheese in the future.
US cheese prices remain attractive globally and the US cheddar inventories remains subdued, but between new plant capacity coming online, perceptions of better milking conditions out ahead of us and still valid worries around looming tariff possibilities – there is a lack of both aggressively bullish or bearish conviction by market participants.
Dry Whey may be finding some sort of equilibrium price here in the mid-50 cent range. Technical support looks like 52 cents ought to hold, but fundamentals can thwart that. For now, however, it doesn’t appear that will happen. Futures were mostly stable/mixed Tuesday with 27 contracts of trading volume.
We look for a mixed start to the US dairy markets this morning.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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